India's real gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to grow at 7.5 per cent in FY26 and moderate to 7 per cent in the subsequent fiscal year, a domestic rating agency said on Wednesday.
"It is quite possible that the rates will remain low in the near to medium term, but that will depend on how conditions evolve," said RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra.
Domestic equities surged on Tuesday, posting their best single-day gains in more than eight months after a long-awaited trade deal between India and the US. The deal, which lowered tariffs on Indian goods to 18 per cent from 50 per cent, significantly improved investor sentiment and lifted a key overhang for the market.
...is a way out, notes Prem Panicker in his must read blog on the Iran War. What the indefinite extension produces is a prolonged condition of not-war-not-peace, in which oil markets cannot stabilise, Asian refineries cannot plan, European governments cannot stop subsidising consumption they cannot afford, and the next flashpoint -- a seized tanker, a miscalculated drone strike, a Truth Social post that claims too much -- is one news cycle away.
Real GDP growth surprised on the upside in 2025, but weaker nominal growth, trade uncertainty, and soft demand signal a bumpier road ahead.
'An asset must generate income. Equities yield dividends, bonds pay coupons, deposits give interest, and real estate earns rent.' 'Gold, silver, and even Bitcoin produce no income, they merely store value. So, they should not be compared to productive assets.'
'I cannot imagine that any NSA before Ajit Doval would have given us this kind of time and this kind of engagement. They would have offered slogans, or nothing at all. That, too, tells you something.'
The Indian rupee, swaying through multiple headwinds, tiding over global trade disruptions and massive foreign fund outlfows, is unlikely to arrest its descent until tariff impact overhangs, notwithstanding robust domestic macroeconomic tailwinds. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which sees the rupee's depreciation as a silver bullet to offset the tariff shock, expects the currency to find its stable course once India reaches a trade deal with its largest trading partner, the US.
It underperformed peers amid volatile capital flows and uneven forex support.
Trade deficit for the quarter narrowed by about a third to $30.7 billion from $45.6 billion in the year-ago period.
Investors must account for currency depreciation in their financial plans and use instruments that can cushion the erosion in purchasing power.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announces increased domestic LPG production to offset import disruptions caused by Middle East tensions, alongside assurances of fertiliser availability and the clearing of UPA-era oil bonds.
The ceasefire is still technically holding, to the extent that no overt hostilities have been reported yet, but the rhetoric has hardened dangerously. The week ahead will also clarify whether the Islamabad failure was a negotiating tactic or whether Washington has genuinely locked itself into a position from which the only exits are climb-down, escalation, or the slow bleed of a new status quo that nobody chose and nobody controls. Prem Panicker continues his must read blog on the Iran War.
Global rating Moody's on Monday affirmed India's long-term local and foreign-currency issuer ratings and the local-currency senior unsecured rating at 'Baa3' with a 'stable' outlook on the back of robust economic growth and sound external position. The rating agency also affirmed India's other short-term local-currency rating at P-3.
The rupee recovered 55 paise from its all-time low level to close at 90.38 against the US dollar after a volatile trade on Wednesday, amid suspected aggressive central bank intervention.
The core issues to be settled -- access to Hormuz, Israel's aggression in Lebanon, the question of Iran's nuclear programme, sanctions relief and compensation -- are thorny enough to require weeks of patient negotiation. The most likely outcome of the opening sessions is that both sides take the measure of each other, establish what is and is not negotiable, and return home without having broken anything. That would count as progress.
Gold imports climbed 349.22 per cent to $12.07 billion in January, while silver imports rose 127 per cent to $2 billion.
Analysts predict India will face oil price volatility and macroeconomic effects due to the escalating Iran crisis, though the country's oil supply chain is not yet structurally insecure.
Current account surplus of Rs 6,520 cr in Q2.
Flagging widening current account deficit as a major risk, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Monday said the government should speed up decision-making and improve business climate to arrest the continuing decline in net foreign direct investment (FDI).
India's economy experienced a growth of 7.8 per cent during the October-December quarter of 2025-26, according to the new series of national accounts with 2022-23 as the base year.
India is growing fast, but to keep growing strong, the government must make more things at home, create jobs, and spend money wisely, suggests Rajiv Memani, regional managing partner, Africa-India Region, EY.
The 'rescue' operation occurred within kilometres of Iran's underground tunnel complex at Isfahan, assessed by the IAEA and US intelligence as holding a substantial portion of the country's 60 per cent enriched uranium stockpile. Retired senior US military officers have highlighted that the mission's footprint -- hundreds of special operators, multiple heavy-lift aircraft deep inside Iran -- appears outsized for recovering a single airman. Prem Panicker continues his must read blog on the Iran War.
The idea of back-loading the target of fiscal consolidation is perhaps guided by the government's desire to be prepared for any adverse developments in the coming year, points out A K Bhattacharya.
The LPG squeeze on India's restaurant sector is the quotidian face of a deeper crisis.
The key question is how much of the latest growth record represents recovery from the 2020-2021 downturn, and what is the sustainable growth rate now, asks T N Ninan.
Despite a strong 7.8 per cent growth in the first quarter, the Indian economy is expected to grow at 6.5 per cent in the current financial year as the impact of US tariffs on Indian exports will reduce prospects, particularly in the second half, ADB said on Tuesday.
The core dilemma remains: Why provide further stimulus to an economy that is already booming at an 8 per cent growth rate? asks Rajeswari Sengupta.
The power sector presents a puzzle. A fast-growing economy should be aligned to higher power demand but that hasn't been the case in the financial year 2026 till date (FY26TD).
Officials from both India and the US in the recent past have indicated that a "fair deal" will be concluded soon, with Indian officials holding that more formal rounds of talks are not needed.
'Calibrated depreciation will help rebalance external fundamentals, offset some of the tariff differentials with competitors, improve the competitiveness of domestic substitutes vis-a-vis Chinese imports, and contribute to the easing of financial conditions at a time when the inflation rate is unusually low,' explains Sajjid Z Chinoy, head of Asia Economics at JP Morgan.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra, and Deputy Governors Poonam Gupta, T Rabi Sankar, Swaminathan J, and S C Murmu on Friday addressed issues during the post-policy media interaction.
'The trade deficit in some sectors is huge and that is an area of opportunity to localise.'
The country's current account deficit widened to 4.4 per cent of the GDP in the quarter ended September, from 2.2 per cent GDP during the April-June period, due to higher trade gap, as per data released by the Reserve Bank on Thursday. "India's current account balance recorded a deficit of $36.4 billion (4.4 per cent of GDP) in Q2:2022-23, up from $18.2 billion (2.2 per cent of GDP) in Q1:2022-23 and a deficit of $9.7 billion (1.3 per cent of GDP) a year ago [i.e., Q2:2021-22]," the RBI said.
India continues to remain an attractive investment destination and rise in repatriation of funds is a sign of a mature market where foreign investors can enter and exit smoothly, Reserve Bank Governor Sanjay Malhotra said on Friday. Gross foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows remained strong, rising by around 14 per cent to $81 billion in 2024-25, from $71.3 billion a year ago.
'A breakout above 158,000 to 160,000 could trigger the next leg higher toward 165,000 to 170,000.'
'Economic activity appears to have peaked in the second quarter of FY26, with industrial output, exports, and business confidence all softening from October 2025.'
India's high cost of capital due to relatively shallow corporate bond markets, limited institutional investor depth, sovereign risk premia, and regulatory restrictions on capital flows, is a constraint on private investment and long-run growth, the Economic Survey, authored by Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran, said.
The central bank listed the widening CAD, which is expected to reach record levels of over 5 per cent this fiscal as one of the primary reasons which could prevent it from reducing rates further.
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